Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 14.727698 16.804931 19.031333 21.590539 24.446308 27.530162 31.107416
2025-09-07 11.641698 14.473327 17.734560 21.749586 26.539507 32.049706 38.845853
2025-09-14 10.277992 13.495355 17.372814 22.354402 28.545311 35.943748 45.407568
2025-09-21 8.854292 12.231367 16.475257 22.143790 29.452816 38.489439 50.427136
2025-09-28 7.461597 10.799373 15.157115 21.185650 29.219028 39.454504 53.363537
2025-10-05 6.897495 10.388296 15.095919 21.803582 30.990593 42.990624 59.680173
2025-10-12 6.364929 9.950840 14.935133 22.233661 32.484967 46.182141 65.636586
2025-10-19 5.731486 9.297620 14.404068 22.083580 33.136626 48.230856 70.105141
2025-10-26 5.165867 8.683940 13.867412 21.863305 33.640544 50.056926 74.298614
2025-11-02 4.738111 8.236200 13.529731 21.890432 34.470290 52.338489 79.180675
2025-11-09 4.398496 7.892621 13.315120 22.071166 35.510150 54.934366 84.579525
2025-11-16 4.041798 7.486256 12.967262 22.013332 36.170794 56.984853 89.243716
2025-11-23 3.682552 7.049665 12.548380 21.830046 36.648777 58.815700 93.710936
2025-11-30 3.420173 6.754881 12.335246 21.954910 37.600672 61.382793 99.362003
2025-12-07 3.276649 6.654630 12.431679 22.577629 39.351132 65.208324 107.022521
2025-12-14 2.998840 6.283972 12.040203 22.360653 39.733006 66.930053 111.518851
2025-12-21 2.628901 5.704514 11.240790 21.395811 38.831154 66.590827 112.786393
2025-12-28 2.536232 5.647824 11.361399 22.018543 40.582200 70.502773 120.835578
2026-01-04 2.422516 5.538644 11.377081 22.452530 42.026671 73.965082 128.274699
2026-01-11 2.238375 5.269703 11.077370 22.301084 42.454969 75.782222 133.122004
2026-01-18 2.061436 4.998226 10.751878 22.078934 42.741278 77.363601 137.622865
2026-01-25 1.929318 4.808883 10.569302 22.106286 43.460203 79.679098 143.388258
2026-02-01 1.824874 4.669617 10.473895 22.288583 44.457327 82.488247 150.048495